History, Myth and Folklore. . .

The National Hurricane Center and local Emergency Managers are forever hearing questions, and "facts" about hurricanes, based purely in fiction. Some may come from simple misinformation, others from that deep seeded need to believe that "It can't happen to ME!"

These "facts" may lead some people to make poor decisions in time of crisis. Usually long time residents of an area are a source of local hurricane history. Much of their information may be solidly based in fact, but our memories have a nasty habit of fooling us at times. In Collier County, the benchmark hurricane (at least before Hurricane ‘Andrew') was hurricane ‘Donna' in September of 1960. At the time, there were about 20,000 full time residents of Collier County, but if you look hard enough, you can probably find 50,000 people who ‘rode out the storm in a shelter, or at Uncle Frank's house, or somewhere else! "Donna's" eyewitness accounts can be confusing at times, because people were in so many different places when the storm made land fall at Everglades City, moved north over Naples, and crossed the peninsula between Ft. Myers and the upper east coast. The effects were very different in different places.

There are also an abundance of hurricane tips, some based in fact, others in folklore. Some may save your home, others may cost you your life. No one knows everything about hurricanes, but a good deal of research is done each year. Every land falling hurricane generates reams of new data, and sometimes leads to changes in recommended actions. That doesn't mean the earlier information was wrong, just that better information is now available.

This pamphlet is designed to discuss some of the facts, history, and folklore surrounding hurricanes, and answer some of the questions you may have with the latest information available. That's not to say that these recommendations won't someday change! If better information is available, that could well happen!

Please feel free to contact the Emergency Management Department if you have any questions, comments, or would like to have a speaker attend one of your organization's meetings. There's no charge! We're located at the address and number at the bottom of this page and through the Internet from your home computer! Our website contains hurricane preparedness and tracking information, and links to tropical weather sites around the world, and we answer E-mail as quickly as possible! Our office hours are Monday through Friday between 8:00 a.m. and 5:00 p.m.

"The storm surge? Never bother me! I'm two whole blocks from the beach!"

Myth: And this one really worries us, and we hear it a lot! A storm surge is a wind driven dome of water that rushes inland ahead of, and to the right of, the center of a hurricane. The dome can reach to 25-30 feet in the right place on the coastline, in a category 5 land falling hurricane! It will NOT stop in a block, or two blocks, or in some cases, for miles!

The National Hurricane Center has developed a computer model called SLOSH, to predict surge inundation, which has been found to be very accurate. In a category 1 hurricane exiting the state at Ft. Myers, the surge will affect the immediate coastal area only. A category 5 land falling hurricane at Bonita Springs could push the Gulf of Mexico inland more than 12 miles! Remember: 90 percent of the people who die in a hurricane drown in the storm surge! PLAN AHEAD!

"I'm ready for a hurricane! I've shuttered the whole east side of my house. THAT'S where the winds will come from!"

Myth: This is another one that frightens us! The winds of a hurricane can come from any direction, including above! To protect a building from wind damage ALL sides must have window, door, and gable end protection, and it must be properly applied!

"They don't get any meaner than ‘Donna!"

Folklore: The problem is that hurricanes can get a LOT meaner than ‘Donna!' The 1960 storm paralleled the southwest Florida coast, which reduces the storm surge considerably. The surge from ‘Donna' was about 11 feet at Naples, but had the storm hit the coast on a perpendicular track, the surge could have reached 15-18 feet. ‘Donna's' winds in Collier County were estimated at a sustained 130 mph, but there have been several stronger storms.

The Labor Day 1935 hurricane (which missed Collier County by less than 100 miles) devastated the Keys with winds of 200 mph and killed over 400 people! The force of those winds would have been about 3 times as strong as the force of ‘Donna!'

"The worst part of a hurricane is the wind."

Myth: Wind accounts for only about 3 percent of the energy of a hurricane. Moisture condensation and rainfall make up most of the rest. Tropical Storm ‘Jerry' (1995) dumped 17 inches of rain on southwest Florida in 12 hours, flooding many areas. When Hurricane ‘Opal' hit the panhandle three months later, another 7 inches fell. Some residents of Bonita Springs in Lee County spent more than 8 weeks in emergency shelters.

"I'm going to open the windows on the side opposite the wind so the difference in air pressure doesn't explode my house!"

Folklore: This used to be the rule in areas affected by hurricanes and/or tornados, but not any more! In fact, studies have shown that opening a window can actually increase the amount of damage done by wind. When a hurricane threatens, you want your home closed up tight, with solid window protection to keep the wind out. What causes the most damage is the wind getting inside, and pushing up on the roof. This lift can rip the roof off your home, especially if it's not properly strapped down.

"I'll protect my manufactured home with storm shutters and tie downs!"

Myth: Mobile, or manufactured homes are simply not designed to withstand the winds of anything more than a minimal hurricane...and even that may be risky! Regardless of your location and possible storm surge threat, you will be advised to leave your manufactured home during the evacuation process. Storm shutters or panels are helpful with wood frame or CBS construction, because they protect the windows. The exterior walls are strong enough to take most of what a hurricane can throw at them (literally!). Manufactured homes are just not reinforced enough to survive high winds, even if tied or strapped down. Besides, screwing a tie down a few feet into the ground (which quickly becomes saturated with rain) does not provide enough of an anchor to keep the home from rolling.

"We've been through ‘Bob,' ‘Keith,' and ‘Marco,' and even ‘Andrew' wasn't THAT bad. What's the worry?"

Folklore: All of these storms (with the exception of Hurricane ‘Andrew', and then only in Everglades City and Marco Island) have one important thing in common: THEY COMPLETELY MISSED US!

‘Bob' brought heavy rains in 1985 but the center passed well north of us. ‘Keith' (1988) and ‘Marco' (1990) passed us by well offshore. Even ‘Andrew' brought only minimal hurricane conditions as far north as the southern part of Naples.

Hurricanes are killers. They damage property and disrupt lives. Rainfall and storm surge cause flooding. Winds destroy homes and businesses. But they are survivable! Plan ahead for the storm that will someday strike our area. It WILL happen. Will you and your family be ready?

"They say ‘Andrew' was a 500 year storm, so we don't have to worry about another storm that strong until 2492!"

Folklore: Just because a hurricane or flood event is described as a 25, 50, 100 or 500 year event doesn't mean it won't happen again tomorrow. The number gives you an idea just how rare (or common) an event is, and is not a forecast of when it will be repeated. Hundred year storms indicate one so severe that statistically it's not likely to happen again for a long time, sort of a once in a lifetime event.

A 500 year event would be catastrophic, of a scale that can not be imagined. On the shorter scale, a 25 year storm won't happen every 25 years, but is an event that could happen fairly often, and is usually less severe, though damage may still be extensive.

"What's a little wind? We have 50 mph winds in some thunderstorms, so 100 or even 150 won't be THAT bad!"

Myth: Even 50 mph winds can do some damage, but the wind force increases at a much faster rate as the wind speed increases. Each time the wind speed is doubled, the wind force increases by a factor of 4! If you triple the wind speed the force increases by NINE times! That means a 100 mph winds has four times the force of a 50 mph wind, and a 150 mph wind is nine times as strong as that of a 50 mph wind! We think of a steady 20 mph breeze as refreshing, but a bit on the "windy" side. Now try to imagine a 200 mph wind. It would have 100 times the force of that 20 mph "breeze!"

"Even so, it's not like anything will blow through the walls of my home!"

Myth: One more thing to consider: a 74 mph wind (minimum hurricane strength) has the ability to drive a piece of 2x4 lumber through a reinforced concrete wall 4 inches thick! Don't scrimp on that window protection!

"Southwest Florida, especially Naples, is protected against hurricanes by geography."

Folklore: You'll hear this one a lot, and to a remote extent it may have a ring of truth to it...sort of. As far south a Collier County is, it's difficult for a major hurricane to develop and hit the area in the worst case possible: land falling. But it's NOT impossible! Even exiting storms can cause heavy wind damage...remember ‘Andrew?'

HISTORY...shows though, that 53 tropical storms have passed within 60 miles of Naples in the years between 1886 and 1998. Several have been major storms. While the risk of a major hurricane making a direct hit is slim, it can and has happened. The east coast has taken far more direct hits because it is often the first land a storm encounters, coming from the east. (You may want to pick up a copy of another pamphlet from Emergency Management, called "Hurricanes NEVER Happen Here...or DO they?" You may find some of our local hurricane trivia interesting!) (Numbers updated to include 'Mitch', a direct Collier County 'hit' in 1998.  'Georges' did not quite make it inside the 60 mile circle.)

"There are wet hurricanes and dry hurricanes... Just hope for a dry one."

Myth: Actually the moisture from tropical storms and hurricanes appears to be about the same, regardless of the strength. The amount of rainfall seems to be dependent on the forward motion of the storm. Here's how it works: Divide the number 100 by the storm's forward speed. If it's moving at 10 mph, divide 100 by 10, and you get an estimated rainfall of 10 inches. Movement of 20 mph means you should expect about 5 inches. It works very well.

• ‘Andrew' was moving at about 18 mph, and the rainfall was under 6 inches.
• A weak tropical storm wandering through east Texas at 2 mph dropped 47 inches of rain!
• And look what slow moving ‘Alberto' (1994) and Hurricane ‘Danny' (1997) did in the southeast! Tremendous flooding in south Georgia and north Florida.
• In 1998, category 5 Hurricane 'Mitch' sat over the coast of Honduras for four days, dumping over 4 feet of rain in the mountains of Central America, causing massive mudslides and flash flooding which killed thousands.
• A week later, weak tropical storm 'Mitch' raced through Naples at 20 mph. Rainfall was about 6 inches.
• Finally, remember tropical storm 'Jerry?' A weak tropical storm which barely moved while over Florida, 'Jerry' unleashed 19 inches of rain in Collier County . . . in twelve hours in 1995.